Sven-Goran Eriksson

HISTORY may or may not be bunk and statistics, just lies and damn lies, but each of them gives Blues fans hope that their side's season can still end in European qualification.

If City fans are to be dusting off their passports in the summer then in the wake of their great deeds at Old Trafford on Sunday they are probably going to need to cheer their favourites to at least another 15 points from the final dozen games.

Record books show that in the 12 seasons since the Premier League was reduced to 20 clubs in the 1995-96 campaign, the average points total of the team finishing in the sixth and last certain Uefa Cup qualification slot has been 59.25.

There is further scope for hope in that in the last four seasons that average has dropped to 58.75 though the number of teams in the chase for fourth, fifth and sixth this season would suggest the barrier may go up slightly this time around.

Having won just two league games in the last nine, the Blues have been on the back foot in the chase for the top six.

But with a healthy break before their next game - at home to Everton - there is every chance that a refreshed City could yet claim one of the coveted places without the need of the Intertoto Cup.

If the Blues repeat the results they achieved earlier in the season against the remaining 12 opponents they will gather 19 points, which will almost certainly be enough.

To achieve that City must turn what, until Sunday's derby, was a poor away record on its head.

So far they have beaten only West Ham and Newcastle in addition to United on their league travels and in order to mirror earlier results in the reverse fixtures they must triumph on the road in five of their last six trips - against Reading, Bolton, Birmingham, Sunderland and Middlesbrough.

All of those sides are currently in the bottom half of the table.

Eriksson's men must also pick up a point at Liverpool or give themselves some leeway by defeating Wigan, Spurs, Chelsea, Pompey or Fulham at home - five sides they failed to defeat earlier in the campaign.

If City go on to claim a Uefa Cup berth it will cap a remarkable first season for the former England head coach.

Since the 38 game season became the norm the Blues have never managed more than 52 points and that was in 2004-05 when Mark Schwarzer saved a Robbie Fowler penalty to rob City of a place in Europe.

Those who believe in omens should note the last match of this campaign is away at the Riverside.

City have only managed to top 50 points twice in the Premier League since 1995-96 and in their seven seasons in the top flight have averaged only 43pts.

They have 44 points already this season - a welcome signpost things are on the up.

In the previous twelve campaigns the highest total needed to claim sixth place was 64 points in 2001-02 (Chelsea) and the lowest when Villa crept in with 55 in 1998-99.

Of course, if Chelsea go on to land the Carling Cup and one of the `big four' lift the FA Cup then seventh place will qualify directly for the UEFA Cup without recourse to the Intertoto.

City and the other contenders, namely Villa, Pompey, Everton, Liverpool, West Ham and Blackburn cannot rely on that happening, but it does offer a comfort blanket and the average number of points needed to finish seventh is considerably lower.

In those 12 seasons when the league was reduced in size, the average number of points for the team finishing seventh was 56.5. Only once when Blackburn occupied seventh spot in 1995-96 has more than 60 been needed (61).

And on two occasions 2001-02 (West Ham) and 2003-04 (Charlton) it has been as low as 53. In the last two campaigns teams have needed 56 and 58 to claim seventh.

What is clear is that the Blues' season is still very much alive and European football next term is still within their grasp.

If they can find the kind of consistency that brought them 25 points from the first 12 matches that would do very nicely indeed.